San Antonio’s Freeze Risk Is Dropping, But Late-Season Cold Remains Possible Through March

A warm mid-February stretch follows the winter’s coldest run

San Antonio has shifted abruptly from a mid-winter cold spell to springlike conditions, raising a common question for residents: whether the city is finished with freezing temperatures for the season. The most recent observed freezes were clustered in a short window from Jan. 18 through Feb. 1, when the region logged multiple mornings at or below 32°F. Since then, overnight lows have generally stayed well above freezing while afternoon highs have frequently pushed into the 70s and 80s.

As of Monday, Feb. 16, the near-term outlook remains mild. Forecasts for the coming week keep nighttime temperatures above freezing, with daytime highs peaking in the low-to-mid 80s before easing back closer to seasonal levels by the weekend. A late-week front is expected to bring a cooler trend, but current projections keep lows in the 40s rather than near 32°F.

What history says about the last freeze in San Antonio

Climatology indicates that San Antonio’s average last freeze occurs around Feb. 23, meaning the region is approaching the typical end of freeze season but is not definitively beyond it. Late-season freezes have occurred in March, and the latest last freeze on record in San Antonio was on April 3, 1987.

Local conditions can also affect who sees a freeze and who does not. Neighborhoods closer to the urban core often remain slightly warmer overnight due to the urban heat island effect, while outlying areas—especially in the Hill Country and more rural parts of the metro—can drop to freezing temperatures later into the season.

What the current outlook can and cannot confirm

While the short-range forecast provides high confidence that freezing temperatures are unlikely over the next several nights, confidence typically decreases as forecasts extend beyond about a week. Longer-range guidance currently favors above-average temperatures into early-to-mid March, which reduces—but does not eliminate—the probability of another freeze.

Bottom line: the immediate risk of freezing temperatures in San Antonio is low, but it is too early to rule out at least one more subfreezing morning before the season ends.

What residents should watch for over the next few weeks

• Overnight lows approaching the mid-30s, especially after a dry cold front with clear skies and light winds.

• Differences between the urban core and outlying communities, where temperatures can run several degrees colder.

• Freeze watches or warnings that may be issued with short lead time when confidence increases.

Even in a warm February pattern, San Antonio can still see a late-season freeze; the strongest signal right now is that it is not imminent.